Workshop: Investment Scenarios for the European Arctic with a View towards 2040
For the first time, the Arctic Futures Symposium will feature a scenarios workshop bringing together graduate students and experts to discuss future investments in the European Arctic.
We live in an era of change. Rapid technological developments, growing geopolitical competition, and of course climate change present fundamental uncertainties. The world in 10-15 years is going to be very different from the kind of stable world we lived in during the last 30 years.
The Arctic, which has become a region of global importance due to its vast natural resources, is also undergoing dramatic changes. Rising temperatures and melting sea ice are creating opportunities for transportation and shipping and making Arctic resources more accessible. Yet, this process is associated with increased vulnerability of Arctic communities and ecosystems. The world demand for Arctic resources is growing. But so is the demand for environmental protection and transition to a circular economy.
What role will the Arctic play in the future? Will it become the next arena for geopolitical rivalry or an arena for cooperation? What will be the dominant approach to Arctic resources? Who will develop Arctic resources and how? What role will indigenous knowledge systems play? Is it still possible to develop the Arctic in a sustainable way?
During the workshop we will deal with these questions, key trends and underlying uncertainties for the economic development of the Arctic using Scenarios methodology.
Scenarios methodology, coming from military art, and later adopted to strategic business planning by Shell, has proved to be a powerful tool. This methodology assumes and accepts fundamental uncertainties (instead of trying to avoid them) and seeks to develop several plausible scenarios for the future. When alternative futures are collectively imagined, a common strategic view and vocabulary can be established. The next step is to develop a competitive strategy that simultaneously assumes different future outcomes.
The focus of the proposed scenario workshop is Investments in the European Arctic. This region is indeed a geopolitical and economic hotspot. Challenges with US-Greenland and largely US-EU relations from one side and the growing conflict between Europe and Russia on the other side present a lot of uncertainties to the European economy and security. At the same time European countries need natural resources, many of those are in the Arctic. What kind of investments, in what and by whom will happen in the European Arctic in 10 to 15 years remains unclear for most experts. Together with the students we will dig into this question and explore European Arctic Investment Scenarios up to 2040!
Workshop results will be presented during the second panel discussion of the symposium on the same topic.
Target Audience: Graduate students from European universities interested in Arctic development, sustainability, economics, and strategic planning.
Location: Rome and Lisbon Rooms, VUB Campus, Pleinlaan / Boulevard de la Plaine 5, 1050 Brussels.
Workshop Goals
- Raise awareness about opportunities and challenges for sustainable economic development in the European Arctic
- Provide basic training in scenario-based analysis as a tool for strategic thinking and cooperation
- Encourage interdisciplinary dialogue and critical reflection on Arctic futures
Program Overview 9:00-17:15 Monday, December 1st
- 9:00 – 9:15 Welcome & Introductions
- 9:15 – 9:45 Arctic Socio-economic Landscape: Opportunities & Risks
- 9:45 – 10:45 Intro to Scenario-Based Analysis, including scenario maps, key trends and uncertainties
- 10:45 – 11:00 Break
- 11:00 – 12:15 Group Work part 1: Images of the future – socio-economic landscape in the European Arctic
- 12:15 – 13:30 Lunch
- 13:30 – 14:45 Group Work part 2: Back casting
- 14:45 – 15:00 Break
- 15:00 – 16:00 Group Work part 3: Investment Scenarios for the European Arctic
- 16:00 – 17:00 Presentations & Discussions
- 17:00 – 17.15 Summing up
Requirements for participants
- Education: Graduate student minimum
- Required reading before the workshop:
- Arctic Value Creation, Employment and Investments
- Socio-Economic Resilience in the Barents Arctic
- Overview of Russia’s Arctic investments in 2017-2022
- International Cooperation in the Arctic 2035 – The Four Scenarios
- Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic
- The Draghi report on EU competitiveness
- Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Investments
- Answer the online form “the 7 Questions” about the European Arctic based on the participants’ own perceptions. This will help the organizers in their preparations and making a scenario template to be completed during the workshop. Link to the online form will be sent to the accepted applicants.
- Technical: own laptop is advantage
Application process
- Students are asked to apply for a spot in the workshop.
- Workshop participants will be chosen among applicants.
- The goal is to have a diverse group of students from different academic disciplines take part.
- Applicants will be notified within a week of registrations closing if they have been chosen to take part in the workshop.
Please use the following form to apply:
Application deadline is November 10th, 2025!
Organised by Nord University, the International Polar Foundation, the VUB Brussels School of Governance, and the North Norway European Office.