Scenarios Workshop: The Future Role of the European Union in Arctic Economic Development

December 01, 2025 - 09:00 / 14:00 - Norway House, Rue Archimède 17, 1000 Brussels

For the second time, the Arctic Futures Symposium will feature a scenarios workshop bringing together graduate and PhD students and experts. This year they will discuss the future role of the European Union in Arctic economic development

We live in an era of profound transformation. Rapid technological advancements, intensifying geopolitical competition, shifting global power structures, demographic change, climate change, and ecological pressures are creating unprecedented uncertainty. The world 10 to 15 years from now is likely to look very different from the relatively stable international environment that characterized much of the past three decades.

The European Union faces growing economic and geopolitical challenges. The Draghi Report highlights declining competitiveness and emphasizes the need for greater investment, innovation, and industrial coordination. At the same time, the Munich Security Report 2025 depicts Europe as operating within an increasingly fragmented and contested international order, with polarization both across and within societies. Against this backdrop, the EU's evolving Arctic policy reflects broader ambitions to enhance resilience, strengthen strategic autonomy, and increase its influence in a region of rising geopolitical, economic, and environmental importance.

The focus of this scenario workshop is the future role of the European Union in Arctic economic development. The Arctic has emerged as a geopolitical and economic hotspot. Tensions surrounding Greenland, changing transatlantic relations, and the continuing deterioration of relations between Europe and Russia create significant uncertainties for European economic development and security. At the same time, European countries depend on access to critical natural resources, many of which are in the Arctic.

The Arctic itself is undergoing rapid transformation. Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are creating new opportunities for transportation, shipping, and resource extraction. However, these developments are also increasing the vulnerability of Arctic communities and ecosystems. Global demand for Arctic resources continues to grow, while calls for stronger environmental protection and a transition toward a circular economy are becoming more urgent.

At the same time, technological change is reshaping societies and economies around the world. These developments may deepen existing inequalities, including disparities in skills, technological capabilities, and access to innovation both within and between societies. They are also intensifying competition between human and artificial intelligence. Understanding how these transformations might influence the European Union and its role in Arctic development is a critical challenge for policymakers, businesses, and communities alike.

The role that the European Union will play in Arctic economic development over the next 5 to 15 years remains uncertain. During this workshop, students and young professionals will explore this question using scenario methodology. Together, we will develop and discuss plausible alternative futures centered around several key questions:

Key Questions

How might geopolitical tensions in the Arctic and Europe evolve, and what pathways could lead to cooperation or continued confrontation?
How will the European Union address its challenges related to competitiveness, economic resilience, and security?
Will coordinated global and European climate action be successfully implemented, and what would be its implications for the Arctic?
How will rapid technological development transform everyday life, work, governance, and economic activity?
What role could the European Union play in shaping sustainable and inclusive Arctic economic development under different future scenarios?

This interactive workshop will provide participants with an opportunity to think
critically about uncertainty, explore alternative futures, and develop insights into the strategic choices that may shape the Arctic and Europe in the decades ahead.

Scenarios methodology

Scenarios methodology, coming from military art, and later adopted to strategic business planning by Shell, has proved to be a powerful tool. This methodology takes on fundamental uncertainties (instead of trying to avoid them), questions commonly accepted assumptions and seeks to develop several plausible scenarios for the future. When alternative futures are collectively imagined, a common strategic view can be established. While Shell’s original methodology is more expert-driven and aimed at supporting strategic reflection within corporate top management, the later developed Scandinavian approach to business scenario planning is characterized by an inclusive, dialogue-based process focused on sustainability, social responsibility, and local relevance, often applied in public sector and regional development. The Scandinavian model involves various stakeholders and seeks to build shared understanding and actively shape the future. During our scenarios workshop we will combine the strong sides of both approaches.

The outcome of the scenario workshop would be two to four plausible scenarios for future role of the EU in the Arctic economic development in the perspective of 10 to 15 years. The results of the workshop are to be presented on stage of the conference Arctic Futures Symposium, December 2nd 2026.

Who should apply?

Graduate students from European universities interested in Arctic development, sustainability, economics, and strategic planning
Young professionals working with the Arctic issues

Workshop Goals

Raise awareness about opportunities and challenges for sustainable economic development in the European Union and the Arctic;
Provide basic training in scenario-based analysis as a tool for strategic thinking and cooperation;
Encourage interdisciplinary dialogue and critical reflection.

Requirements for participants

Education: Graduate student minimum, several places can be allocated to bachelor level students with relevant background.
Submit application form.
Answer online form “the 7 Questions” about trends influencing the European Arctic and its role in the Arctic based on the participants’ own perceptions. This will help the organizers to customize the workshop in form which is most suitable for the group. Link to the online form will be sent to the accepted applicants.

Terms of participation

Participation is free of charge. Participants will be selected based on their online applications. During the selection process, we will ensure diversity within the group in terms of fields of expertise, age, and gender. In addition, a number of places will be reserved for graduate students.

As part of the application, you will also be asked to explain your motivation for participating in the workshop.

The maximum number of participants is 25.

Please note that participants are responsible for covering their own travel and accommodation costs in Brussels.

Highly recommended reading before the workshop:

Technical: bring your own laptop if possible

Selection of the participants

During the selection process we are going to secure diversity of the group in terms of field of expertise, age, gender. Further, we are going to reserve some places for graduate students. Maximum size of the group is 25 people.

Contacts

Andrey Mineev, PhD
Nordområdesenteret / High North Center for Business and Governance
Nord University Business School, Norway
andrey.mineev@nord.no

Organised by Nord University Business School (Norway), International Polar Foundation, North-Norway European Office, European Policy Centre.